JulusCesar schreef:Toffe discussie hier maar voor een leek wat moeilijk. Concreet met alle info welk advies voor het aandeel ?

Koersdoel blijft 18,50 euro.

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) ING heeft dinsdag het advies voor AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group verhoogd van Houden naar Kopen en handhaafde het koersdoel op 18,50 euro.

Analist Stijn Demeester noemde het, gezien de zwakke koersontwikkeling, momenteel een goed moment om in te stappen. Na bekendmaking van de resultaten daalde de koers van AMG met ongeveer 7 procent, volgens ING enigszins overdreven. AMG heeft volgens Demeester sterke prestaties afgeleverd n het derde kwartaal, ondanks uitdagende marktomstandigheden.

Bovendien zijn de vooruitzichten voor het omvangrijke lithium-project van AMG volgens ING niet veranderd. Demeester ziet zelfs opwaarts potentieel voor het project, als AMG een leveringsovereenkomst sluit tegen hogere prijzen dan de analist inschat en indien AMG goedkeuring krijgt voor de tweede fase van het project. Als deze twee gebeurtenissen plaatsvinden, dan zou het koersdoel voor AMG met krap een derde omhoog kunnen, stelde de marktvorser. - See more at: http://www.debeurs.nl/Forum/Topic/13395 ... vVXh6.dpuf

The total capex came in at $22.7M, but it’s important to realize the sustaining capex was just $9M, with the remaining capex used for expansion (at the tantalum mine and the graphite mine).
Anyway, if we would deduct the sustaining capex from the adjusted operating cash flow, AMG generated approximately $33M in free cash flow, and will very likely boost this to in excess of $40M on a full-year basis (and we are hoping to see $45M). This would result in approximately 1.5 EUR per share, which means AMG currently has a free cash flow yield of 9%, which isn’t expensive at all, given the push to expand the current operations.

That’s fantastic and once we throw in some sustaining capital expenditures and transportation expenses, we would feel comfortable with an all-in cost of $225 per tonne of spodumene.

Investment thesis
AMG is currently generating approximately $45M per year in free cash flow but this could easily increase to $60M once the spodumene project is being brought into production in 2018. AMG currently has no net debt, and the existing cash flows could be sufficient to fund all expansion capex as well.
AMG Metallurgical Group definitely is a company to keep an eye on!

Poldermol schreef:
Edit: zelfs de sustaining capex is niets nieuws, staat netjes in de publiek beschikbare persberichten hoeveel de sustaining capex was in de eerste drie kwartalen.

Poldermol schreef:Dat zou ik eens moeten nakijken. Het probleem was dat ze het niet duidelijk meldden, en dat ik het snel snel uit de Q1,2 en 3 persberichten haalde. Het is uiteraard goed mogelijk dat er een slordigheidje ingeslopen is!

Outlook

Without exception, throughout 2016, AMG has delivered quarter-over-quarter improvements in EBITDA relative to the prior year. We expect to continue this performance in the fourth quarter 2016.

In 2017, AMG expects to continue its strong financial performance.

While we remain focused on operating cash flow and return on capital employed, management's priority in 2017 is to execute our transformational lithium project.

good morning sir,
These questions are not mine, because I still got the faith in your firm.
On the forum there are wild speculations about why the stock is falling continously. Is somebody attempting to take over the firm? Is RWC completely selling off there remaining 10%? Is there a problem with the creditline? Will the factory not be ready in time or are there rising problems with that project? As I specified, these are not my questions but people are really getting nervous and I hope You can give an explanation to their questions...
sincerely yours
Kris
Dear Kris,
Thanks for your email. Although I would not normally comment on speculation or rumors, I did want to reply to your mail to set your mind at rest given the volatile trading activity in recent days.
With regards to RWC, they remain very supportive of AMG. They chose to only sell half of their 20% shareholding as they wish to continue to share in the significant future upside, resulting partly from our Lithium project (as many analysts have indicated publicly already). As part of the sell-down, they also agreed to a 180 lock-up period, meaning they cannot sell any more of their shares until May 2017 at the very earliest.
In terms of Lithium, our project is proceeding exactly as planned. We press released the signing of an EPC contract for the turnkey delivery of our lithium spodumene plant a few weeks ago. In recent weeks, Lithium prices estimates have increased (Roskill update – please see below) further strengthening our conviction around the project.
Roskill Lithium view: SQM reported record revenues for its lithium division in Q3 and 9M, with sales more than doubling to US$338M y-on-y for 9M and almost tripling to US$145M y-on-y for Q3. Sales volumes were 12.1kt (carbonate and hydroxide) for Q3 and 35.2kt for 9M, suggesting annual volumes (extrapolated to 47kt for 2016) may come close to capacity (48ktpy). The company sees annual demand rising 12-13% in 2016; this is ahead of Roskill’s revised 7.3% growth and would take demand to almost 200kt LCE (matching Roskill’s projected supply figure and removing the expected oversupply).
With regards to the other rumors, I would prefer not to comment specifically, but I can assure you they are simply rumors.
In terms of current trading, we have seen a number of non-fundamental investors (Quant investors, driven by algorithms) selling large blocks of shares in recent days. Our banks and analysts believe that this activity is driven by the need to take profits prior to a number of significant events in December – i.e. the Italian Constitutional Referendum on Dec 4th and the US Fed Meeting on December 14th. This trading activity has had a detrimental effect on our share price in recent days, but it is a short-term effect, and unfortunately nothing which we (AMG Management) can control as you can appreciate.

I hope this is helpful.
Best regards,
Steve
Steve Daniels
Senior Vice President Corporate
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. - See more at: http://www.debeurs.nl/Forum/Topic/13395 ... 1biiX.dpuf

Umi schreef:@Poldermol; Enig idee vanwaar de daling?
Duidelijk wel een paar stoplosses afgegaan (turbo's).
Ik heb maar wat bijgekocht aan €14,80. Aandeel wordt zo weer 1 van mn grootste posities.

Poldermol schreef:Een opportuniteit, denk ik